Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses in Agricultural Systems of the Central Highlands of Vietnam

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as a key driver of soil system dynamics, yet its role in governing coupled hydrological–biogeochemical processes in tropical agroecosystems remains insufficiently resolved. Here, we integrate long-term climate records (2005–2023) with field-based soil observations to develop a process-oriented framework linking climatic variability to soil system responses in tropical tea agroecosystems of the Central Highlands of Vietnam. We show that rainfall variability exerts dominant control over soil moisture dynamics (r = 0.76), enhancing runoff potential, while increasing temperature is associated with reduced soil organic matter (r = −0.58), indicating accelerated carbon turnover. Building on these relationships, we propose a coupled process framework in which hydrological forcing and biogeochemical degradation interact through feedback mechanisms that amplify soil vulnerability. To support this interpretation, we introduce a simplified erosion-risk proxy capturing first-order interactions between rainfall variability and slope, and interpret statistical relationships within a pathway-oriented structure rather than as standalone correlations. Although constrained by limited sample size, the consistency between observed relationships and established process understanding suggests that climate variability can act as a coordinated driver of interacting soil processes, rather than independent controls. This study advances a transferable conceptual framework for understanding climate-driven soil degradation in tropical agroecosystems and highlights the importance of integrating hydrological and biogeochemical perspectives in soil system analysis.