Examining the Effectiveness of Risk Management Practices on Tax Base Expansion Projects: A Case Study of the Zambia Revenue Authority

Tax base expansion is an important strategy for improving domestic revenue mobilisation by increasing taxpayer registration, improving compliance, and integrating previously untaxed economic activities into the formal tax system. However, tax base expansion projects operate within complex environments characterised by operational, technological, economic, and stakeholder-related risks that can affect their successful implementation, and the effectiveness of the risk management practices applied to them remains insufficiently documented in the Zambian context. This study therefore examined the effectiveness of risk management practices on tax base expansion projects at the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA), guided by three objectives: to identify the common risks encountered, to assess the effectiveness of risk management practices in mitigating these risks, and to analyse the challenges faced by project teams in implementing them. An exploratory case study design with a mixed-methods approach was employed, using a cross-sectional survey. A semi-structured questionnaire containing closed-ended and open-ended questions was administered to ZRA employees selected through convenience sampling, with a sample size of 92 participants and 91 valid responses analysed. Quantitative data were analysed using STATA, with descriptive statistics presented in Microsoft Excel 365 and Chi-square tests used to examine associations between categorical variables, while qualitative responses were analysed thematically. Respondents were mainly experienced and educated employees, with 58.3% holding Bachelor’s Degrees. Compliance risk (33.0%) and operational risk (31.9%) were the most frequently encountered risks, the economic environment (30.8%) and technological failures (27.5%) were the leading sources of risk, and monitoring and enforcement was the most exposed project stage (34.1%). Risk mitigation was the most commonly applied strategy (49.5%), supported by process standardisation, cybersecurity protocols, stakeholder engagement, specialised staffing, routine audits, and risk assessment training. However, limited staff capacity (33.0%), inadequate training, insufficient budget, taxpayer non-cooperation, and bureaucratic delays constrained implementation. Chi-square tests indicated significant associations between risk types and project stages, risk management strategies and operational risk control, and training programmes and skills gaps. The study concludes that effective risk management improves tax base expansion project performance, but requires stronger staff capacity, institutional support, and stakeholder collaboration.