Integrating Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Landuse/Land Cover Changes and Urban Growth in Modelling Surface Temperature Variations of Asaba Metropolis, Delta State

Rapid urbanization and land use/land cover (LULC) change have significantly altered urban thermal environments, intensifying urban heat island effects and increasing climate-related risks in developing cities. This study investigates the spatio-temporal relationship between LULC dynamics, urban growth, and land surface temperature (LST) in Asaba Metropolis, Delta State, Nigeria, over a 20-year period (2002–2022). Multi-temporal Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI/TIRS imagery was analysed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to derive LULC, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and LST maps for 2002, 2012, and 2022. Supervised classification achieved overall accuracies exceeding 96%, confirming the reliability of the generated land cover maps. LST was retrieved using an NDVI-based emissivity-corrected algorithm, while statistical and spatial analyses quantified the influence of urban growth and vegetation dynamics on surface temperature patterns. Results show that built-up land increased from 19.37 km² (5.21%) in 2002 to 56.90 km² (15.11%) in 2022, accompanied by a decline in vegetation cover from 72.99% to 67.91%. Mean LST increased from 34.24°C to 35.04°C, with the highest temperatures consistently associated with built-up and bare land surfaces. NDVI exhibited a persistent negative relationship with LST, confirming the cooling role of vegetation and the progressive intensification of the urban heat island effect. Spatial modelling further demonstrated that urban expansion and land cover transitions were the dominant drivers of increasing surface temperatures across the metropolis. This study advances understanding of urban thermal dynamics by integrating LULC change detection, urban growth analysis, NDVI assessment, and LST modelling within a unified spatio-temporal framework. The findings provide quantitative evidence to support climate-responsive urban planning, green infrastructure development, vegetation conservation, and geospatial monitoring strategies aimed at enhancing urban climate resilience in rapidly growing tropical cities.