An Analysis of Social Media Narratives and the Framing of State Legitimacy and Public Safety During Youth-Led Civic Unrests in Nairobi City County, Kenya

Social media has become an important arena through which civic unrest is narrated, interpreted and contested. During youth-led civic unrests, competing digital narratives may portray state institutions, protesters, police conduct and public safety in substantially different ways. However, the prominence of such narratives does not necessarily mean that they produce corresponding changes in public trust in security institutions. This study analysed social media narratives and their framing of state legitimacy and public safety during youth-led civic unrests in Nairobi City County, Kenya. Guided primarily by Framing Theory and supported by the Social Construction of Reality perspective, the study adopted a cross-sectional mixed-methods design. Quantitative data were obtained from 365 respondents, while qualitative evidence was obtained from key informants drawn from civil society and security communication. Descriptive statistics, correlation and multiple linear regression were used to analyse the quantitative data, while qualitative evidence was analysed thematically. Respondents recognised several competing narratives, including portrayals of government as illegitimate (M = 3.46, SD = 1.252), protests as justified civic action (M = 3.44, SD = 1.247), emphasis on police violence (M = 3.39, SD = 1.199), narratives associated with increased fear (M = 3.39, SD = 1.205), and portrayals of security agencies as ineffective (M = 3.36, SD = 1.276). Qualitative findings similarly indicated competing and sometimes contradictory narratives concerning state failure, civic resistance, police conduct and public disorder. However, none of the five narrative dimensions had a statistically significant bivariate association with the two-item institutional trust score. Their combined regression model was also statistically nonsignificant (R² = .014, F = 1.040, p = .394). The findings demonstrate an important distinction between the perceived prominence of social media narratives and their measurable relationship with institutional trust. The study concludes that social media provides an important arena for framing and contesting state legitimacy and public safety, but recognition of prominent digital narratives does not independently explain variations in institutional trust.