Normative–Adaptive Government Budgeting Theory: Reframing Public Budgets from Forecast-Based Planning and Ex Post Control to Real-Time Public Value Governance

Purpose: This study aims to develop a new theory in governmental accounting that addresses persistent limitations in the planning and control functions of government budgets. Existing budgeting frameworks primarily focus on forecasting what is likely to occur and rely on ex post accountability, which constrains the budget’s capacity to support timely corrective intervention and public value realization.

Design/methodology/approach: The study adopts a theory development approach grounded in a critical synthesis of contemporary governmental accounting, budgeting, and accountability literature. By systematically reviewing post-2020 studies on line-item, program, performance, and adaptive budgeting models, the paper develops a conceptual framework that integrates normativity, time, and corrective authority within budgeting theory.

Findings: The analysis reveals that prevailing budgeting models emphasize classification, measurement, and reporting, while under-theorizing the temporal and normative dimensions required for real-time governance. The study proposes the Normative–Adaptive Government Budgeting Theory (NAGBT), which reconceptualizes budgets as dynamic accountability instruments that prescribe required public value outcomes and enable corrective intervention during execution rather than after outcomes materialize.

Originality/value: This study is original in developing an integrated theoretical framework that explicitly links public value orientation, temporal sensitivity, and adaptive authority within government budgeting. It moves beyond incremental reform perspectives by redefining the budget’s core function in governmental accounting.

Theoretical, practical, and social implications: The theory advances governmental accounting and accountability literature by repositioning budgets as active governance mechanisms. Practically, it provides a conceptual basis for designing budgets capable of timely correction and adaptive control. Socially, it supports more effective use of public resources and strengthens the capacity of governments to protect and enhance public value.