Application of the Prophet Model in Demand Forecasting and Supply Chain Risk Management for a Packaging Manufacturing Enterprise: A Case Study of TJP Joint Stock Company

In the context of profound global economic integration, enterprises are facing fierce competitive pressures and unpredictable fluctuations from international value chains. The disruptions and market uncertainties in recent years have proven that supply chain management is no longer merely the coordination of the physical flow of goods from manufacturers to consumers. Instead, it has evolved into a data-driven strategic management system, where the ability to respond rapidly and forecast accurately determines an enterprise's competitive advantage. For enterprises like TJP Joint Stock Company, maintaining the balance between supply and demand is a vital problem to ensure competitiveness. To solve this problem, time series forecasting models in general and advanced models like Prophet in particular (developed by Meta) have emerged as an optimal solution due to their robust capability in handling highly seasonal time series data and the effects of holidays and special events. This has opened up a new direction: building an automated, low-cost, yet high-performance and easily operable forecasting system. Concurrently, the study proposes criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of supply chain risk management at TJP Joint Stock Company through an empirical enterprise survey.