Climate Responsive Multi-patch SEIR Malaria Transmission Model with Population Mobility across Nigeria’s Six Geopolitical Zones

The interplay between climate variability, population mobility across Nigeria’s heterogeneous geopolitical zones, and malaria transmission dynamics has not been comprehensively captured in a single mathematical model. We developed a climate responsive multi-patch compartmental model across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, each treated as a distinct epidemiological patch. The model’s basic reproduction number   was obtained using the method of next generation matrix, while the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium stability was established analytically. The model exhibits a disease-free equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable when   < 1 and an endemic equilibrium when   > 1. Baseline numerical estimates of the patch-level reproduction numbers range from   = 2.67 (North Central) to   = 2.84 (North East), yielding a system-level   ≈ 2.84. Sensitivity analysis identified the biting rate of mosquito, extrinsic incubation period progression rate, and treatment rate as the most influential parameters. Climate warming of +2  extends the transmission season and amplifies  ; population mobility sustains endemicity in sub-threshold patches through importation dynamics. Results highlights the importance of climate-adaptive interventions, inter-zonal coordination, and scaled-up vaccination under Nigeria’s 2021–2025 National Malaria Strategic Plan.