Factors Affecting Green Space Density in the Inner City of Ho Chi Minh City

This study investigates the multi-dimensional determinants of Urban Green Space (UGS) density across the rapidly consolidating inner-city districts of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. Over the past three decades, market-driven development has catalyzed unprecedented urban compaction, reducing public green space to historically low levels (<1m2/person). Leveraging a mixed-methods research design, we analyze spatial data from 350 urban blocks across six inner-city districts (District 1, District 3, District 4, District 5, District 10, and Binh Thanh) using a multivariate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression framework. Our spatial-statistical model evaluates the impact of three distinct clusters of predictors: urban morphology (Building Coverage Ratio [BCR], Floor Area Ratio [FAR], and Sky View Factor [SVF]), economic drivers (Land Value [LV] and Population Density [PD]), and an Institutional Enforcement Index (IE). The empirical results reveal that high BCR and FAR exert severe negative pressures on ground-level green space density (GSD), while SVF displays a non-linear U-shaped relationship with localized green coverage. Furthermore, escalating land values (LV) act as a powerful economic disincentive for municipal green space preservation, prompting private developers to maximize buildable area. This study establishes a quantitative link between micro-morphological trade-offs and macro-planning outcomes, proposing a Salutogenic Urban Design Framework and advocating for the institutional integration of Green Micro-infrastructure (GMI) into the Vietnamese National Building Code to reconcile compaction with climate resilience.