Modelling the Export-Growth Nexus in India an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

This study re-examines the relationship between exports and economic growth in India by separating short-run dynamics from long-run equilibrium relationships. Set against India’s shift from an inward-looking, state-led model to a liberalised and globally integrated economy, the analysis emphasises how trade structure and import dependence shape growth. Using quarterly data from 2005Q3–2025Q2 and the ARDL bounds testing approach, the study tests whether exports act as a sustained engine of growth. Results confirm stable long-run relationships among GDP, exports, and imports. However, exports do not show a positive long-run effect on growth; their association with GDP turns negative when imports are included. Imports, in contrast, have a positive and significant long-run impact, highlighting the role of imported capital goods, intermediate inputs, and energy in supporting productivity and capacity. In the short run, both exports and imports positively influence output, indicating that trade supports cyclical growth even if long-run drivers differ. Overall, India’s growth appears more import-supported and domestically driven than export-led.