Assessing the Effects of Rainfall Variability on Household Food Security: A Case Study of Small-Scale Farmers in Mungule Village - Chibombo District

This study examines the implications of rainfall variability for household food security in Mungule Village, Chibombo District, with particular emphasis on smallholder farmers whose livelihoods are predominantly dependent on rain-fed agricultural systems. In Zambia, agricultural productivity and crop yields are strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, making farming communities especially vulnerable to climatic fluctuations. Within this context, the paper analyses long-term rainfall variability and its relationship with agricultural production in Chibombo District of Zambia’s Central Province. The analysis is based on two sources of precipitation data: observed rainfall records from the Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) and satellite-derived gridded data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), covering the period from 1981 to 2021. Agricultural production data spanning 1999 to 2018 were also utilized. Non-parametric statistical techniques were applied to detect trends in precipitation, while the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Seasonality Index, and Precipitation Ratio were employed to evaluate changes in rainfall characteristics over the study period. In addition, the influence of El Niño events on rainfall distribution and seasonal onset in the study area was assessed. Correlation analysis between annual rainfall totals and rice production revealed a moderate positive relationship (r = 0.40), suggesting that interannual rainfall variability exerts a measurable influence on crop yields. The results indicate a statistically significant increasing trend in rainfall during the study period, although agricultural production remains highly sensitive to rainfall variability. The findings underscore the reliance of certain areas on rainfall for paddy cultivation and emphasize the importance of localized rainfall monitoring to support sustainable agricultural planning. The study provides valuable insights for farmers and policymakers by identifying rainfall-sensitive zones and encouraging the adoption of drought-resilient cropping strategies. Future research should integrate socio-economic and soil-related factors to improve assessments of agro-climatic vulnerability in rain-fed farming systems.