Assessing the Effects of Rainfall Variability on Household Food Security Among Smallholder Farmers: A Case Study of Nkeyema Ward, Nkeyema District

The impact of climatic variability on agricultural production is particularly severe in countries where rain-fed agriculture is the main source of livelihood. Smallholder farmers in Zambia are highly dependent on rainfall for crop production, making them especially vulnerable to climate variability. In Nkeyema District, unpredictable rainfall patterns have become more frequent, disrupting planting schedules, lowering crop yields, and threatening household food security. The main objective of this study is to assess the effects of rainfall variability on household food security among smallholder farmers in Nkeyema Ward, Nkeyema District. Specifically, it will (i) examine the relationship between seasonal rainfall variability and crop yield, (ii) assess the effects of rainfall variability on household food availability and dietary diversity, and (iii) evaluate coping and adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers to mitigate the impact of rainfall variability on food security.

The study will adopt a descriptive case study design to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. A sample of 75 smallholder farmers will be selected using purposive and stratified random sampling to ensure representation across farming households. Data will be collected using structured questionnaires, supported by interviews and a review of secondary sources such as rainfall data records and agricultural reports. Quantitative data will be analyzed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis to establish relationships between rainfall patterns, yields, and food security outcomes. Qualitative responses will be coded thematically to capture adaptation strategies and perceptions of climate variability. Results show that 54.7% of farmers described rainfall patterns as highly variable, while 48% reported significant reductions in crop yields linked to irregular rainfall. The effects extend to household food access, with 41.3% indicating that food availability had been severely reduced during erratic rainfall seasons. These findings highlight how fluctuations in rainfall not only disrupt agricultural productivity but also threaten nutritional well-being and economic stability in rural households.