The Psychology of Fear and Global Conflict: How Collective Anxiety Shapes International Relations

This article explores the psychological mechanisms through which fear, insecurity, and group identity influence international relations, diplomatic decision-making, alliance formation, and conflict escalation. Integrating theories from political psychology, emotion research, and social identity theory, it examines collective anxiety as a key driver in major global conflicts, focusing on the NATO–Russia and China–U.S. rivalries. Fear, as an evolutionarily grounded emotion, biases threat perception and generates security dilemmas whereby defensive measures escalate mutual insecurity and mistrust. Group identity reinforces narratives of existential threat, fostering in-group cohesion at the cost of out-group hostility. Alliances serve not only strategic but also psychological functions by addressing fears of isolation and abandonment, although fragile trust within alliances can paradoxically increase instability. Emotional feedback loops exacerbate tensions through mutually reinforcing fear and hostile postures, reducing diplomatic flexibility. This interdisciplinary approach reveals the emotional substrates underlying persistent geopolitical rivalries and highlights the need for integrating emotional and identity-sensitive strategies in diplomacy and peacebuilding. Practical implications advocate for policies aimed at emotional de-escalation, confidence-building, and recognition of collective identity to disrupt cycles of collective anxiety and promote global security.