Connectedness of Government Effectiveness and Poverty Reduction in Nigeria

This study explored the connection between government effectiveness and poverty reduction in Nigeria, using time series data spanning from 1981 to 2023. The study employed the ADF structural breakpoint unit root, Granger causality, AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and diagnostic models. It was realized from the ARDL output that EDI had an insignificant positive relationship with POVr in Nigeria, in the short-term model. Contrarily, it demonstrated a significant positive in the long-term model of this study. On the other hand, CCI exhibited an insignificant negative relationship with POVr in Nigeria, in the short-term and long-term models of this study respectively within the period under study. In addition, FCASP was observed to have exhibited an insignificant positive relationship with POVr in Nigeria, in the short-term. Contrarily, it also showed a significant positive in the long-term model of this study. Finally, FRESP had a significant negative relationship with POVr in Nigeria, in the short run. Conversely, it exhibited an insignificant positive in the long run model of this study. Granger causality test result indicated that EDI and CCI, because their p-values in Table 4.7 were significant and leading to the conclusion that government effectiveness exhibits a significant one-directional causal relationship (EDI→POVr and CCI→POVr) with poverty level (measured by final consumption expenditure of households) in Nigeria. Sequel to the findings, it was suggested that there is a dire need for effective monitoring and evaluation of the various capital and recurrent income channels to the Nigerian populations including social amenities, social transfers, remunerations, other social benefits, etc., so as to ensure that the vulnerable ones (especially the less privileged ones) should through these means enjoy the dividends of democracy and good governance in the country.