Cyclicite De La Politique Monetaire et Qualite Institutionelle Au Maroc : Une Approche LSTR

Recent literature (Gadelha & Divino, 2021; Kakar et al., 2020) [17, 19] demonstrates a robust link between institutional quality and monetary policy cyclicality, with emerging economies often exhibiting procyclical biases. This paper investigates this phenomenon in the unique case of Morocco, where institutional deficiencies—particularly in education, healthcare, and justice (CSMD, 2021)—make it a compelling laboratory to test these hypotheses.

Using a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model following Teräsvirta's (1994) [31] methodology, this study reveals three key findings: (i) the Moroccan Taylor rule exhibits significant nonlinearity, confirming existing research on heterogeneous monetary regimes; (ii) monetary policy remains structurally procyclical during 1984-2019, consistent with emerging market trends; and (iii) institutional quality emerges as a decisive factor (p-value < 0.05).

Beyond its methodological contribution (first STR application to Morocco), this research informs debates on institutional reforms needed to achieve countercyclical policies. Results suggest a minimum governance threshold is required to reverse cyclicality, opening avenues for comparative North African studies.