Bridging the Carbon Gap: A Critical Assessment of Dangote Refinery’s Alignment with Global Net-Zero Targets in the Context of Nigeria’s Energy Transition

This study critically evaluated the alignment of Dangote Refinery's operations with global net-zero emissions targets amidst Nigeria’s push for energy independence and economic revitalization. With a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the Dangote Refinery is Africa’s largest single-train facility and is projected to save the Nigerian government approximately $15 billion annually in foreign exchange while creating thousands of jobs. However, its environmental implications are substantial, with estimates suggesting up to a 160% increase in national greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) if carbon mitigation measures are not adopted. The research examined how the refinery's reliance on fossil fuels, particularly for powering logistics and production, conflicts with Nigeria’s 2060 net-zero pledge and the Paris Agreement goals. Using a combination of policy analysis and sustainability assessment tools, the study revealed that the refinery’s current operations show limited alignment with international climate targets, posing both regulatory and reputational risks. A 5% carbon tax (CAT) scenario shows modest CO? reduction trends (up to 0.36% annually), underscoring the need for a more aggressive decarbonization strategy. Key findings highlight the lack of transparent carbon accounting, underutilization of clean technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS), and insufficient stakeholder engagement. The study emphasized that investment in renewable energy sources— including solar, wind, and biomass—is not only environmentally imperative but also a strategic move to enhance brand equity and long-term profitability. To address these gaps, the paper recommends: Publishing audited emissions data, setting science-based emissions targets, deploying low-carbon innovations, and achieving ISO 14001 and GRI certification. Embracing these actions can help Dangote Refinery reposition itself as a climate-conscious industry leader in Africa’s transition to a green economy, while avoiding potential losses in market share due to rising consumer preference for eco-friendly alternatives.