Population Growth, Climate Change and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The study examined impact population growth and climate change on Nigeria's economic growth. Leveraging a comprehensive time-series dataset spanning from 1981 to 2021, the study incorporates crucial variables: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population growth rate, mean annual temperature, carbon dioxide emissions, agricultural value added, and fertility rate. The research employs two distinctive models to unravel the intricate relationships at play: The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds (ARDL) and the quadratic regression model which seeks to determine the optimal levels of population growth and climate change (MTEM) that maximize economic growth. The findings showed cointegration among all the variables used in the study. Population growth was found to have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria both in the short-run and long-run. While Climate change found have a negative impact and insignificant on economic growth in Nigeria both in short-run and long-run. The research recommends that the government of Nigeria should also consider alternative old-age security arrangements, such as developing financial markets and robust pension systems, to manage the implications of population growth effectively while avoiding potential diminishing returns.