A Quantitative Conceptual Model for Assessing Compliance Risk in Emerging Economies

Compliance risk has become a critical concern for organizations operating in emerging economies due to regulatory volatility, institutional weaknesses, and increasing international scrutiny. This study develops a quantitative conceptual model for assessing compliance risk, integrating governance structures, regulatory enforcement, organizational behavior, and market dynamics. Using a mixed-methods approach that synthesizes prior research and constructs a theoretically grounded model, the study identifies key drivers of compliance risk and quantifies their interactions through weighted indicators. Findings suggest that governance quality, regulatory predictability, and organizational culture significantly influence compliance outcomes, while market complexity and external stakeholder pressures modulate these effects. The model provides a practical tool for policymakers, regulators, and organizations to identify high-risk areas, prioritize interventions, and enhance compliance monitoring in emerging market contexts.