Modeling the Climate Impact of Early Leak Detection via Continuous Monitoring

Methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas, and its mitigation is essential for achieving near-term climate goals. This paper develops a theoretical framework to assess the climate impact of early methane leak detection enabled by continuous monitoring technologies. Unlike conventional detection approaches reliant on scheduled inspections, continuous systems offer real-time surveillance, significantly reducing the duration of undetected leaks and enabling immediate mitigation. The framework integrates principles of emission quantification, leak characterization, and real-time detection dynamics into climate impact models, allowing for the evaluation of reductions in cumulative methane release and associated radiative forcing. The analysis demonstrates that early detection not only improves the accuracy and responsiveness of leak management but also alters the emission duration distribution, especially by minimizing contributions from large, persistent leaks. This shift contributes to measurable reductions in atmospheric methane concentrations and supports compliance with regulatory and voluntary climate commitments. Theoretical insights suggest that the broad deployment of continuous monitoring can play a transformative role in climate mitigation strategies, offering rapid, scalable, and verifiable reductions. The paper concludes with implications for industry and policy, and outlines key areas for future research to strengthen the link between monitoring innovation and environmental outcomes.