Discussion on El Nino

As of October 12, 2023 the Climate Prediction Center [1] says there is an 80% El Nino for March 2024 to May 2024. However, as of October 21, 2023, there is predicted very little rain in Berkeley, California according to www.weather.com. El Nino comes from the fact that it starts around Christmas (El Nino = "The Boy"). In this short paper, the author will size up the phenomenon and try to say why it is hard to predict (onset of rain). For one thing, weather cannot be predicted more than ten days in advance, even though the most advanced data collection and supercomputers are employed.